Yle’s latest monthly voter survey sees the opposition National Coalition Party (NCP) retain its lead at the top of the poll, but Prime Minister Sanna Marin‘s Social Democratic Party (SDP) has closed the gap.
Although still the most popular party, the NCP saw its backing among voters drop in the monthly survey for the first time since June’s municipal elections — down 0.4 percent to leave the Petteri Orpo-led party on 20.9 percent support.
Meanwhile the SDP saw a reverse of a recent slide in support, with a 0.6 percent increase leaving the governing party on 19.3 percent.
Research Director Tuomo Turja of polling research firm Taloustutkimus told Yle that the NCP are still benefiting from a good showing at June’s municipal poll.
“Since the municipal elections, the NCP has been the clear leader in all party support polls. It is noteworthy that the situation has been very stable for the third month in a row, at least for the top parties,” Turja said.
The third-placed Finns Party has stayed at the same level — around 17.7 percent — for the fourth consecutive poll, demonstrating that the change in party leadership in August does not seem to have had any significant effect on party support.
The SDP’s main governing coalition partner, the Centre Party, remained in fourth place on 12.6 percent, with a slight uptick in support of 0.4 percent.
Greens lose support to Left
However, another governing party — the Greens — saw a significant dip in support of one full percentage point compared to last month’s poll, while coalition partner the Left Alliance saw an increase in voter backing by exactly the same amount.
“The Greens are clearly losing support, especially to the Left Alliance. The leak in the direction of the SDP is also larger than in previous polls,” Turja said, adding that previous polls have shown that support tends to see-saw between the two parties.
Both the Greens and the Left called for more effective climate action during the government’s budget negotiations, which occurred during the latest polling period, but eventually accepted a compromise in which climate action will be discussed during next spring’s budget talks.
A Green Party call for an end to the ‘prohibition’ of cannabis in early September also divided opinion and led to dozens of members resigning from the party.
The Greens named MP Iiris Suomela interim party chair last week, replacing current leader Maria Ohisalo while she is on maternity leave.
Among the smaller parties, backing for the Swedish People’s Party (SPP) and the Christian Democrats dipped very slightly to 4.1 percent and 3.2 percent respectively, while Movement Now saw its support among voters fall by 0.8 percentage points to 1.7 percent.
Taloustutkimus interviewed 2,538 people between 1 September and 5 October 2021 for the survey. Altogether 1,754 voters revealed their party affiliation and the margin of error was +/- 2 percentage points.
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