As Lithuania’s population has shrunk by a third since the 1990s and continues in the same direction, the government is under growing pressure to do something to address labour shortages. However, “immigration” remains a toxic word.
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Beardland, a men’s barbershop in Vilnius, is staffed entirely by foreigners. The manager says recruitment procedures take about six months. Barbers from Turkey and North Africa often have a lot of experience but no diplomas, further complicating work permit procedures.
“When people want to come with a work visa, they are always asked for a diploma and documents. I would rather employ them now than in six months. I’m looking for a worker, there’s a vacant chair. It takes a lot of time,” says Ahmed Deker, manager of Beardland.
The problems faced by him are quite common – as Lithuania’s population continues to shrink, the government is looking at ways to tackle the pressure.
It is estimated that the population has fallen by a quarter over the last 30 years: from 3.7 million in 1992 to 2.8 last year. According to projections, Lithuania may have a population of under 2.5 million by 2030 and 2 million by 2045.
The decline exerts a growing pressure on social services. For example, there is currently one pensioner per more than three working-age people; if the demographic situation remains unchanged, by 2050, the ratio will fall below two workers per pensioner.
“We will become one of the oldest societies in Europe, the average age of a person will reach 50, which means that fewer and fewer working people will have to support our pensioners, and if they increase the tax burden even more, and promise to raise the retirement age, it is only natural that these people may look overseas,” comments Elena Leontjeva, president of the Free Market Institute thinktank.
The parliament has therefore set up a working group to submit recommendations to the government for how to address the problem. One part of the plan is about boosting fertility, fine-tuning family policies and healthcare.
The other part of the recommendations is about measures to stabilise the labour market: bringing older people and people with disabilities into work and facilitating immigration.
Since immigration is a sensitive issue, some politicians argue that, if it is unavoidable, Lithuania should at least make a list of “priority countries” whose citizens would get preferential treatment.
“Poland has chosen Belarus, Armenia, and Ukraine,” conservative MP Justas Džiugelis, chair of the working group, gives an example.
But even that is too much for some MPs, who say immigration is given too much of a role in solving Lithuania’s demographic problems.
“[The recommendations] list the problems, but most of the proposals focus on immigration,” comments Ieva Kačinskaitė-Urbonienė, a member of the working group from the opposition Labour Party, suggesting that policies boosting fertility and encouraging repatriation should be the focus. Her criticism is echoed by members of the ruling conservative-liberal coalition as well.
However, experts say that immigration is an inevitable part of addressing demographic issues.
“We probably want to follow the example of Western and Northern Europe. How do they keep their labour force at least constant? Through migration. I don’t think we can avoid this path,” says Tadas Povilauskas, an economist at SEB Bank.
As wages continue to rise, Lithuanians will be more willing to work, the economist says.
“Rapid growth has been one of the reasons why we are close enough to the Nordic countries in terms of employment – the share of the population in the labour market,” says Povilauskas.
Following the recommendations, the government is expected to present a plan of measures in the autumn and send it back to the parliament for further discussions.
The working group has also proposed that parliamentary parties sign “a national agreement”, recognising demographic decline a national threat.
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