A new poll suggests that a right-wing government could enter power after Sweden’s upcoming September elections. But a fragmented political map makes predictions difficult.
The poll, commissioned and published on 11 February by the newspaper close to the Social Democratic Party, Aftonbladet, shows that the Social Democrats continue to be the country’s biggest party with 28.2% support.
However, that may not be enough to hold on to the prime minister’s post. Currently, Sweden has a minority government led by the country’s first female PM, Magdalena Andersson.
All three parties on the right have increased their popularity to give them 50% support in the 349-seat parliament and potentially a one-seat majority. For the liberal-conservative Moderate Party, the poll puts them at 22% (+0.2), with the Christian Democrats at 5.6% (+0.2) support. The biggest gainer has been the nationalist and right-wing populist Sweden Democrats, increasing 1.4%, putting the party on 19.2%.
If elections were held now, the new Prime Minister would likely be the Chair of the Moderate Party, Ulf Kristersson, a strong advocate for Sweden’s NATO membership. The Sweden Democrats, founded in 1988, would have a chance to enter the government for the first time.
But six months before the elections, predictions for the next government are an educated guess. Key to the outcome may be the Centre Party. With 7.9% support, it has kept its political options open towards the right and left. The new poll does not promise much for the Liberals and the Green Party as neither party would pass the minimum threshold of 4% support to enter parliament.
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