The full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the highly significant Eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka over the past week is largely the result of munitions shortages, according to Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) artillery commander Major Tanel Tatsi.
Avdiivka is one of the most heavily fortified major towns in Ukraine and has been termed a “gateway” to the nearby Russian-occupied city of Donetsk.
The recent withdrawal has been considered by some as Russia’s most significant victory since the Battle of Bakhmut, which ended in May last year.
Appearing on ETV show “Ukraina stuudio” on Sunday, Maj. Tatsi said that the front-line around Avdiivka had remained largely static since 2014 and the start of the insurgency war in eastern Ukraine, conducted by pro-Russian forces in 2014. The full-scale invasion which started nearly two years ago led to more intense fighting.
Maj. Tatsi said: “The main reasons has to relate to the fact that the Ukrainians probably have little ammunition at the moment.”
“They likely have little supply of both artillery and anti-aircraft ammunition, and other things which have been made public. This is is has to be said only what is said publicly, but there is likely some truth in it behind it, as in any case they had to evacuate the city,” Maj. Tatsi went on.
Reports state that Ukraine also sent reinforcements to Avdiivka this week, to cover the withdrawal.
Of this, Tatsi said that: “Essentially, you have to hit your opponent in the nose, figuratively speaking, to make him pause for a moment, and then pull out at that very point.”
The situation in Avdiivka became most critical for the Ukrainians once Russian forces started arriving in the city in significant numbers.
“Prior to that, the defense of the city had been located outside it, and for a very simple reason: Once an enters an urban area, it is much easier for them to approach your defensive positions, using the self same buildings as cover,” Tatsi went on.
“Yes, concealment for the defenders is also simpler in this case, but when being outnumbered, at some point you’re going to be in a situation where you simply cannot plug all the gaps. Add to that an opponent who doesn’t care to much about losses, who is sending in assault groups en masse, then sooner or later they’re going to locate a vulnerability somewhere, and percolate in and take advantage of that,” Tatsi said.
Russian forces began conducting offensive operations to capture Avdiivka at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, and its remaining in Ukraine’s hands was a constant thorn in the side of Russian forces, as it obstructed them from using Donetsk, just a few kilometers to the South, as both a communications hub and a jumping-off stage for offensives.
The current offensive began last October, and new Ukrainian commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, ordered the withdrawal on Saturday, in order to avoid encirclement at a time when supply routes were under threat, and to preserve service personnel taking part.
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