The deployment of North Korean units on the Ukrainian frontline will not lead to major changes for the time being and they will in all likelihood suffer heavy losses, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center. However, Russian forces still hold the initiative in Donetsk Oblast, he added.
“Unfortunately, there is again nothing positive to report from the Ukrainian frontline this week. The Russian Federation’s forces are still holding the initiative along the entire front, which has forced the Ukrainian forces to gradually retreat,” Col. Kiviselg said during this week’s Friday briefing at the Estonian Ministry of Defense.
The average number of attacks has remained similar to previous weeks, at around 167 per day, Col. Kiviselg said.
“The Russian Federation’s armed forces have been most successful in capturing territory in Donetsk Oblast, in particular in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka regions. Over the last week, the Russian Federation has occupied an additional 150 square kilometers of territory in these areas,” Col. Kiviselg said.
“In addition, there are indications that the armed forces of the Russian Federation are preparing ground attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. It is likely that the upcoming attacks will involve the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, which is already known to us, as its permanent base in Pskov. The aim would then be to conquer new territories as well as for Ukraine to commit more of its forces in that area,” Col. Kiviselg continued.
“To sum up, worrying developments continue to take place in the Donetsk region and Donetsk Oblast. We cannot rule out that the Russian Federation armed forces could achieve a local breakthrough in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar regions this year,” he added.
North Korean soldiers on the frontline
Speaking about the arrival of North Korean soldiers on the frontline, Col. Kiviselg said that, according to Ukrainian data, 3,000 servicemen of the 11th Army Corps of the North Korean Armed Forces have arrived in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Among them are a few hundred servicemen from the North Korean Special Forces.
“These soldiers probably arrived on the territory of the Russian Federation in early October, where they underwent preliminary training in the Eastern Military District, which lasted between two and four weeks, After that, their deployment to the Ukrainian front has begun,” Col. Kiviselg said.
“In total, North Korea is expected to have pledged to send between 10,000 and 12,000 troops to the Russian Federation, including 500 officers and three generals. The arrival of North Korean soldiers on the Ukrainian front is likely to take place in stages. The arrival of subsequent North Korean units on the Ukrainian front will then take place in the coming weeks,” Col. Kiviselg said.
The EDF colonel added that North Korean soldiers are usually trained to fight in mountainous terrain. This means that the territory of Ukraine along with its specific climate and geography are unknown to them.
“And in the same way, their training doesn’t really presuppose fighting in such (mountainous – ed.) areas. The training they are undergoing in the Russian Federation is certainly not of a very high standard. So, we can expect North Korean units to take heavy losses in Ukraine, and presumably even heavier losses than the Russian Federation’s forces have taken so far,” he explained.
Nevertheless, Col. Kiviselg said, it is possible that North Korea will continue to send more units to Russia and the Ukrainian front.
“Despite this, the intelligence center’s current assessment is still that even if this deployment of North Korean units to the Ukrainian frontline continues, it will not bring about a major change for the time being. However, if additional deployment continue to deployed to Russia, where they are trained and then arrive on the frontline, in the long term, that certainly could lead to some changes,” Col. Kiviselg said.
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