Former Head of the Estonian Defense Forces Maj. Gen. Martin Herem said Estonia would not win a decisive victory in a war unless it invests more funds in defenses and more quickly.
The war in Ukraine ought to have taught the West, including Estonia, a number of lessons, upon which we acted accordingly. The more lessons learned, the less actions are needed, according to the Estonian Defense Forces.
“Obviously, we are at war with an adversary whose economic situation is such that it is able to rebuild its forces by recruiting, even with relatively little money,” said Maj. Gen. Vahur Karus, chief of the Joint Headquarters of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF).
Previous commander of the EDF, Maj. Gen. Martin Herem, said that the West underestimated Russia from the start. According to Herem, the Russians are not deterred by losses and we are not prepared for that. For that reason, we must inflict losses on Russia from the first moment of a potential attack, and many of them. Otherwise, a decisive victory will not be achieved.
“We are certainly not prepared for a decisive victory. There is also a belief among politicians that we will win this war. We have to be ready not just for a military victory but for a very decisive victory. And for that we need to invest much more and much faster,” said Maj. Gen. Herem.
“If we say today that we have decided to invest in ammunition up until 2030, we are essentially saying that we will not be ready to respond to aggression in this way before then. Or even saying that nothing will happen before then. And that does not reassure me in any way,” Maj. Gen. Herem added.
Maj. Gen. Karus said that Russia is able to cope with the technology it has and can also quickly adapt its economy for war.
“They can use old equipment in a completely new way. Make all the things they have work on the battlefield. And, of course, we can see how they’ve got their military industry up and running,” said Maj. Gen. Karus.
Allied preparation for war is not uniform, according to Herem. On the one side are the countries bordering Russia, while on the other are those further away from Russia.
“We, for example, have increased the volume of training exercises,” Maj. Gen. Herem said. “In this regard, the West has not followed us in any way. We see how important it is to have manpower in reserve in addition to what you have in the units,” he added.
The accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO is a positive development, as is the serious attitude shown by the Polish government towards armament and its role in providing increased security in the region.
According to the EDF, the winner of a war will be the one whose society understands the need to prepare for it and also gets its feet off the ground.
Tuesday marked the 1,000th day since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Maj. Gen. Herem sees the defense of Kyiv as one of the major milestones of this period. If the Russians had captured Kyiv’s airports, they would have been able to airlift large numbers of troops into the Ukrainian capital.
A second major lesson came with the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the fall of 2022, when the Russians were caught unaware around Kharkiv.
Third, was Russia’s surprise retreat from Kherson, which nobody expected until it happened.
Fourth is the current situation in the Donbas, where the Russians are establishing defenses and, at the same time, consistently pushing forward.
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