Ukraine’s defenses are holding up despite strong Russian pressure, said Lt. Col. Toomas Väli, deputy commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) General Staff. The last week, he said, was characterized by “bandit” attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
“For 1,010 days Ukraine has stood up to Russian aggression, and [Ukraine’s] defenses are holding – not broken despite all the difficulties,” Lt. Col. Toomas Väli said at the weekly Ministry of Defense press conference this Friday. Lt. Col. Väli added that Ukraine is currently facing difficulties with domestically produced ammunition.
Last week, Russia launched numerous attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
There were three consecutive nights in the first half of November when more than 100 Shahed-type or similar drones were fired. In addition, there was a major attack on November 17, in which several different types of missile were deployed. A large number of energy facilities across Ukraine were hit.
On November 21, Russia launched an RS-26 intermediate range missile on the city of Dnipro.
“It was obviously a demonstrative strike on the city of Dnipro,” said Lt. Col. Väli. “By now, everyone is realizing that this is not some kind of ‘miracle weapon,’ that there was more bluster than substance.”
However, according to Lt. Col. Väli, an attack like this is concerning because while Ukraine abides by the international laws of war when it comes to drone strikes, Russia does not.
On November 27, an air strike took place, in which Russia launched 188 missiles , of which Ukraine managed to shoot down 76 cruise missiles, three H-59/69 missiles and 35 attack drones.
According to analysts, there has also been an increase in “double tap” strikes – a war crime which involves following a strike with a second strike several minutes later at the same location. “The aim is to hit rescue workers, medical personnel and anyone who has arrived to help,” Lt. Col. Väli explained.
Six “double tap” attacks were recorded in 2022, and twelve in 2023, while as many as 20 have already taken place this year. “This is very bad and shows that Russia is ruled by bandits,” said Lt. Col. Väli.
At the political level, Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president will also have an impact on the outcome of the war.
“Trump’s election has led to him making staff appointments,” said Lt. Col. Väli. “While Putin was perhaps hoping for troublemakers to emerge there, in reality it’s still hawks – former special forces generals who are going to try to unravel this Ukrainian-Russian knot as special envoy to Ukraine.”
The EDF Lt. Col. also drew attention to the situation in Syria, where Russia supports President Bashar al-Assad.
In the past week there have been a number of insurgent attacks in Syria, said Lt. Col. Väli. “This is a very interesting development that may have an impact on Russia.”
On the ground, the Ukrainian frontline has held. Russian troops have continued to press very hard in different directions, with an average of around 200 attacks a day.
There have been no significant changes in Kursk Oblast. “There is pressure but no result,” said Lt. Col. Väli.
The fiercest fighting is taking place in the direction of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, where there is no sign of the Ukrainian front collapsing.
In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces have been trying to cross the Oskil River and have increased pressure on the town of Kupiansk. “The Russian Federation’s success is marginal. There is no sign of anything that could change the situation there very much.”
Lt. Col. Väli concluded by saying that when Russia celebrated its Marine Corps Day on November 27, the Ukrainians marked the occasion by capturing a couple of dozen Russian Marines from the 810th Marine Brigade.
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